by stephenlee - Sold: 2 apartment buildings sold at $25.5M ($559/sf)
- 992-996, 998 Amsterdam Ave. on 109th St
- Built in 1920. Mixed use building under Rent Control
- Total 45,576 sf with elevator – 49 units between Studio and 4 bedroom units
- 1st floor: bar, restaurant, barber shop,etc. ( 7 retails)
- Senior population increased in Nassau Co in NYC
- According to Census report, age group of 55-64 increased by 48% during 2000-2016
- Age group of 25-44 decreased by 18% during same period
- Reason is high tax for younger population
- Asian increased by 40.1% and Hispanic increased by 41.8% while White decreased by 7.4% during last 11 years (2005- 2016)
- In Nassau Co, white is 62% which is highest while White in Hempstead town decreased by 20% for last 16 years
- In spite of getting old and decreased birth rate, the county population increased by about 60,000 due to influx of immigrants(3 out of 10 speaks other language than English)
- Korean owned business reduced by number
- According to HanGook Ilbo directory
- Total 9217 Korean owned business in NY Metro area (reduced by 4.2% from 9617 last year / reduced by 3.7% from 9569 in 2009)
- Moving/Delivery/Trucking sector(4.8%) reduced most by 13%
- Reduction order (major 11 sectors): moving /trucking (4.8%: 201) → private schools (13.2%: 553) → construction/architects (5.8%: 244) → restaurant(8.3%: 347) → Chinese medicine (3.5%: 146) → lawyer (10%: 424) → RE agents (15.5%: 653) → CPA(4.4%: 186) → Office(24.5%: 1030) → beauty salon (4.2%: 177) → insurance (5.7%: 242)
- 6 sectors (Chinese medicine, lawyer, Dr. office, RE agents, construction/ architects, beauty salon) are increased from 10 years ago (2009)
- US Government shut down might affect SBA loan
- About 30M small businesses.
- Those who need SBA loans have to access some other funds available
- In 2013, Government shut down caused people traffic reduction by 7.3%. consumption reduced by 2-4% down due to non-paid vacation and reduction of government employee’s income
- If shut down becomes long term, it might affect business revenue
- Economic Recession will come in 2019?
- 10 years cyclic economic pattern is not automatic: fundamentals is still strong
- UE rate is lowest in 50 years (many people did not want to see lowest UE rate because low UE rate triggers prices increased)
- Jobs between age group of 25-54 increased by 3.2M since 2015, but jobs are mostly low income jobs which is the reason of not much prices increased
- Above average income jobs did not show income increase
- US could solve 2 important fundamental issues: low UE rate and low prices
- If economic recession comes, then it will be from organization debt and bond market
- Total debt damage might be $300B – $400B which is relatively small, compared to US total assets of $100T. Stock market might down by 10%
- Average or lower income population do not own much bonds or stocks
- Current high housing price is not from bubble, but from strong fundamentals
- Rent increase is also from natural demand increase
- Trade war will make US corporates hard to operate
- IR increase might be source of burst on stock/bond bubble, which will cause also increase of trade deficit
- It becomes Buyer’s market, but Price dropping is not possible
- Forecasted by NAR Chief economist, Lawrence Yun
- He has been with NAR for 10 years. He will visit Japan next year
- House prices will go down partially so that transactions will be increased
- There will be NO big scale foreclosures as some rumor says because income is increasing steadily.
- Slowly it becomes buyer’s market/ Buyer does not need to hurry and seller does not need to lower the price, either
- Looking back housing market in 2018 ( CNBC report by CoreLogic)
- Mortgage application and new construction decreased.
- Housing price increase rate becomes slow which means increase of equity slows down.
- Average equity increase in 3rd quater is $12,400 from a year ago while 2nd quater increase was $16,000
- House price in Octorber increased by 5.4% while 2017 increase was 7%
- First half kept strong increase, but slowed down in 2nd
- US total home equity is $9.8T while $5.9T is possible to do equity loan (increased by $571B from a year ago), but only $64B loan actualized, which is about 1%
- Many home owners are watching the market without spending money from equity loan
- 4 area, LA, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose is the leading area for housing price increase or decreasing
- USPS Postage will be 55 cents from 1/27/2019
- Biggest price increase for last 27 years
- “Forever” stamp will 50 cents if purchased by 1/26/2019
- 1st class over 1 ounce will add 15 cents/ post card is 35 cents which remains same
- R(ecession) and T(rump) fear caused black X-mas in global stock market
- 1) Trade war between US and China, and 2) US monetary tightening policy 3) Trump’s political unclearness are causing stock market dropping
- As of 12/24, Dow dropped by 653( 2.91%) to 21,792 → 1st time dropping in X-mas for 122 years. S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 2.71 and 2.21 respectively
