Mortgage Interest Rates Review
Saudi Invest in Skyscraper Project
사우디 아라비아, 뉴욕에 마천루 프라젝에 투자
WSJ 7/8/25(Tue)
- Saudi Arabia’s government fund is taking a two-thirds stake in a site for a planned Manhattan skyscraper, the latest sign that foreign investors are flocking back to New York’s rapidly recovering real estate market.
- The Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is teaming with Related Cos., which has said it is planning to build a 1,200-foot tower on the site. The New York developer and the Saudis own this site one block from Central Park, which was purchased last year for more than $600 million. The overall cost for the site and development is expected to be more than $1 billion.
- Foreign investors have been returning this year to New York City’s commercial-property market, which is the largest, most liquid and among the top performers in the U.S.
- The Saudi Public Investment Fund has assets of about $1 trillion, making it one of the world’s largest investors. It is one of the major overseas funds returning to New York.
New Office Building in Manhattan
WSJ 7/8/25
Warehouse Vacancies Hit a Record.
웨어 하우스 공실률 최대
WSJ 7/10/25(Thu)
- More U.S. warehouse space is vacant than at any time in the past 11 years as companies hold off leasing new space amid rapidly changing trade policy.
- The average warehouse vacancy rate across the U.S. ticked up to 7.1% in the second quarter from 6.9% the previous quarter and 6.1% a year earlier, according to a new report from commercial real-estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.
- That marked the first time the vacancy rate surpassed 7% since 2014, as businesses rushed extra inventory into their existing warehouses earlier this year and then paused decision-making during the Trump administration’s on again, off-again tariff rollout.
Recession Risk Seen Cooling Even Amid Turmoil on Tariffs
무역 전쟁속에서도, 경기침체 가능성은 약해짐
WSJ 7/14/25(Mon)
- The economic fallout from President Trump’s policies may prove less dire than feared. Economists expect stronger growth and job creation, lower risk of recession and cooler inflation than they did three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters.
- On average they put the probability of recession in the next 12 months at 33%, down from 45% in April, but higher than January’s 22%.
- “Despite numerous headwinds, the U.S. economy is proving stubbornly resilient,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Restaurant Association. “Consumers are continuing to spend, but the mood has clearly shifted from bold to careful.”
Recession Probability & CPI
Split Fed Clouds Future Rate Cuts
기준금리 감소안, 연준안에서도 뜨거운 논의
WSJ 7/5/25(Sat)
- Two developments have animated a possible shift. First, Trump has dialed back some of the most extreme tariff increases. Second, tariff-related increases in consumer prices haven’t materialized, though many officials and economists expect price hikes in June and July data that will be reported beginning next week.
- A sizable minority doesn’t expect to cut at all this year. They are fearful that after four years in which inflation has run above the Fed’s 2% goal, customers will grow more accepting of higher prices and businesses will have greater reason to test their appetite.
- A larger group expects cuts this year, thinking tariff costs may not prove large enough to risk persistent inflation or that the labor market will soften—or both.
- But most want to wait a few more months.
Challenger to FICO Scores Approved for Use in Mortgages.
모기지 이자률, FICO 점수외에 다른 점수도 기준?
WSJ 7/9/25(Wed)
- Shares ofFair IsaacCorp., the company behind the FICO credit score, sank nearly 9% on Tuesday after a federal agency greenlighted the use of its biggest rival in mortgage underwriting.
- Mortgage lenders can now use theVantageScore4.0 model when originating loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which amount to nearly half of recent mort-gage originations.
- Lenders can now choose to use the VantageScore 4.0 model or the FICO 10T model when issuing loans that get sold to Fannie and Freddie, according to their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The two mortgage giants package loans into bonds that get sold to investors with government backing, and their underwriting models are widely followed in the $13 trillion mortgage market.
