Weekly News (August 9, 2017)

1. Former Hess terminal in Edgewater, NJ will become mixed use complex?

  • Plan is to build 1872 unit residential and retail complex (8.7 ACRE on River Rd) ←→ Town wants to seize the property through eminent domain
  • The developer (615 River Rd Partners) is ready to the Mayor (Michael McPartland) and other town officials
  • Will appear before the board on 9/12 to request multiple variances (height, density, land use)
  • Town is intended to buy this lot for $25 Million (largest undeveloped land on the Hudson River waterfront north of Hoboken) for Public works, parking and additional parkland

2. New Garment District in Brooklyn, NY

  • Former Brooklyn Army Terminal in Sunset Park → Becomes 2nd garment district
  • According to NYCEDC, $115 Million invested → will complete the end of this year (300,000 SF)
  • Nearby Ferry terminal will have a sign to Garment District
  • Moving Garment business from Manhattan Garment district to this 2nd Garment District is welcome → will support establish modern process facility

3. Manhattan → Small business’s grave yard? (The Korea Times 8/9/2017) 

  • Recently a deli owner closed down his deli business in K town (Landlord asked $100,000 rent from $80,000)
  • Some store raised 10% in the area (Manhattan average increase : 2~5%)
  • Typical K town rent: $200~250 / SF (Office: $50~$55 / SF) and mostly Triple Net
  • Fort Lee, NJ → $95 / SF, Office: $35~$45 / SF) due to Hudson Lights project
  • Palisades Park, NJ → $45~$65 / SF, Office: $35~$45 / SF

4. New Apartment construction → NY area is #1

  • According to RentCafe, NY metro area new apartment units → 26,739 units by 2017 (#1 in US)
  • 17,000 units Last year: 57% Up in 2017 (Dallas: 24,960 units, Fort Worth: 17,960 units)
  • In NY/NJ metro, Manhattan: 7023, Brooklyn: 6984, Queens: 4165, Northern NJ: 3510, Mid NJ: 2426.
  • Accordingly, residential vacancy rate is expected to be 11% in NYC in 2018 (Currently VC rate: 3.8% / US Average rate: 4.4%)
  • 40,000 units will be supplied around end of 2018 (LIC is #1 in 30 big cities in US for new apartment 12,533 units supply between 2010~2016)
  • Recently, rent increase is slowing down and more landlord concession → Rent down by 2.7% in 2020 / Cap rate → 4.5%

5. Reasons for Mortgage Interest rate increase

  • Federal Reference rate is controlled by FRB. Long term rate will follow US treasury bond income rate / Shot term rate (Variable rate) will follow reference rate by FRB
  • Contractionary policy has been announce at June FOMC meeting → upward Interest rate
  • Unemployment rate decrease →4.4% → Increase employment → upward Interest rate
  • Consumer confidence level is being checked when mortgage rate is determined
    (High confidence level → high Interest rate)
  • Inflation → high mortgage rate (Current inflation: 1.5%~2%: low)
  • Stocks move high → triggers mortgage rate upward (investors sell bonds and buy stocks → increase bonds return rate → mortgage rate upward)
  • Trade Conflict → National debt: $20 Trillion. 1/3 is kept by foreign banks
    If trade conflict → foreign countries sell US bond → Bond return rate go up → Mortgage rate upward

6. Pending Home Sales improved in June

  • For 3 months, pending sales declined → Improved in June.
  • NAR announced pending home sale index 110.2 → up by 1.5% in June
  • US housing market is increasingly confronting shortage of inventory

7. Foreign buyers continue to increase (Articled by Charles Oppler)

  • According to NAR, Foreign investment in US continue to grow in 2017
  • New Jersey is 5th for foreign buyers ← Close to NYC (Global financial capital of the world)
  • In 2016, FL, TX, Cal, NJ, Arizona were the destinations of foreign buyer home sales
  • New Jersey becomes more diverse → Multicultural downtowns, schools, recreational programs → Melting pot of diversity
  • Over $153 Billion in total seals closed in US in 2016 → 49% gain over the previous year
  • Residential investment led by China: $31.7 Billion , Canada: $19 Billion, UK: $9.5 Billion, Mexico: $9.3 Billion, India: $7.8 Billion

8. Nationwide Top Real Estate agent: commission $35 Million~$42 Million ?

  • According to Realty Trend, an agent in Texas → Ben Coberello
  • He sold 3500 houses/units last year (Mainly average house price $400,000)
  • Used to a developer → Homes USA Realty about 10 years ago
  • Currently 1200 listings on MLS (Under Contract: 400~500 houses)
  • Mainly his target → Major local developers and get into pre-sale agreement

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