Weekly News (May 2, 2018)

1. Palisades Park Public High School Security Guard project might be halt

Town selected 9 guards by Henry Lou’s (Council member) personal contact, but no objective data to prove their fitness and qualification
Among 9 guards selected, Mayor Rotundo’s cousin and Henry Lou’s brother included
‘Nepotism’ should not be allowed, according to Mr. Woo (Education Committee member)
Tow general Admin and Education Admin should be separated

2. Queens, NY, house price continues to be strong

3. Alpine, NJ, Property Tax is 3^rd place in the State

Average tax in Alpine: $21,933 → 3^rd highest in NJ
1^st highest in NJ → Tavistock, Camden County: $31,415 (Population : 5 ← Reduced form 24 in 2000). Originally town was established for to play golf on Sunday in Tavistock country club
2^nd highest in NJ → Millburn, Essex Co: $23,733
Tenafly ($20,434: 4^th), Demarest ($19,137: 9^th) were included in top 10
NJ Average Tax: $8,690

4. Pending home sales index decreased in March

According to NAR, March pending homes sales dropped by 0.4%
Reason: low inventory
3.0% dropped, compared to last year → During last 3 months, it dropped continuously, compared to a year ago

5. Consumer expenditure increased by 0.4% in March

In the beginning in 2018, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) was not so good
January: 0.2% Up / February: 0.0%
Personal Income (After tax) is Up by 0.3% in March (Forecast was 0.4%)

6. 2 New Condos will be on West Side in Manhattan, NY

The XI (the Eleventh) between 17^th St ~ 18^th St on 11^th Ave
Twine style : West Building: 36 stories / East Building: 26 stories
West Building → 149 Condo units / East Building → 87 Condo units & Hotel, ‘Six Senses’
Amenity: 4000 SF fitness center, 75 FT swimming pool, Wine testing place, etc.
Pre-sale starts in May / 1BR: $2.8 Million, 2BR: $3.9 Million, 3BR: $6.5 Million / 4BR : $9 Million / Penthouse: $25 Million
Completion date: 4^th QT in 2019

7. Korean Foreign Student decreased to lowest level for 15 years

F Visa / M Visa Total 67,326 → First time under 70,000
72,814 in 2016 → 5% Down
Highest point: 110,083 in 2008 (73,272 in 2004)
Order: China → India → Korea: Difference from top 2 countries becomes bigger
Korean student STEM field → Only 25%
New York: 10,080 / California: 14,226
Highest number of Foreign Students → New York University: 16,960 / North Western: 14,248 / Columbia: 12,785

8. Trend: Rich people Exit from New York and California

Cause: Tax deduction limit to SALT $10,000
Conservative Economist Arthur Laffer forecasts 800,000 rich people will move out of New York and California for next 3 years
Also 500,000 people will move out of New Jersey, Connecticut, Minnesota because of high income tax
They forecast SALT of high income earner will be increased by 8.5% → 13% (Tax for higher than $10 Million income earner will increased by 50%)
Opposite opinion: Still rich people like New York, New Jersey, California → They will not change their life style that easily
High tax states attract more millionaires: 119,000 millionaires moved to New Jersey after 2010 / 305,000 millionaires moved to New York / 730,000 millionaires moved to California

9. Mortgage Interest rates move Up

Freddie Mac announced the rates of 4.58% for 30 year-fixed → Up by 0.11% from last week
Highest rates since August, 2013
15 year-fixed rates (Popular for Re-Fi) : 4.02% → 0.08% Up from last week
5/1 ARM rates: 3.74% → 0.07% Up from last week

10. Oil Prices move Up to close to $70.00

WTI price moves Up to $68.50/barrel → becomes burden to US economy
In 2016, $26/barrel → Pain in oil industry
US economy can bear with current price → Does not hurt demand, recovery of oil industry → Helps US economy
Gasoline price and other petroleum related product price → Functions as tax
High oil prices → Consumer prices Up → Becomes pressure for Fed to move Up interests rates
Worry on high prices → Highest level of US 10 year treasury bond yield since 2014 / Lowering stock indexes
Reason to high oil prices: Consumed surplus of oil supply/ increased demand steadily (Current oil price is way below than $4/Gallon in 2008)