Weekly News (Februray 6, 2019)

475 Main St, Fort Lee. Korean female(63) jumped from the window at 10th floor
Last week another suicide (Russian: 81) at 14th floor in the same apartment building
Korean woman lived with her mother(86) and she moved in recently
The motives are unknown

Account in Mariner’s Bank is accessed by on-line hacking, bank announced
So far, no reason to believe that it is done by town government people
US Secret services, FBI, and Bergen County Prosecutor are investigating with full force
Similar accidents happened in Elmwood Park, Fairlawn, Oakland, Rockaway, Montville, etc. recently
Recent hacking crimes are done by “Ryuk” ransom ware

Palisades Park school district will secure $56M to improve school facilities

The projects include facility improvement on early childhood school, Lindbergh elementary/middle school, high school
Among $56M education budget, 30-40% will be obtained from the State as matching fund and the rest will be tax money which will cause tax increase by $125 /year for next 10 years
$56M fund raising plan will be voted this fall for resident approval
Education committee pointed that good teachers are hesitating to come to school district and students are leaving the town to transfer to other towns

American Dream Meadowland in East Rutherford
Total 3.2M sf Entertainment Complex developed by Triple Five Canadian company
Over 400 retailers (Banana Republic, Century 21, Hermes, Microsoft, Sacks Fifth, etc) and restaurants (Dons Bogam (돈의보감), etc)
Swimming pool, play ground, indoor Sky, snow board, 5000 seat theater, aquarium in total of 639,000 sf
40M visitors are expected per year which will create over 20,000 jobs, and $3.5B tax money for State for next 25 years
Meadowland complex becomes total entertainment complex along with Met-Life stadium and the Horse race track nearby

NY PACB( Public Authority Control Board) can nullify the Amazon plan
PACB consists of 5 members including Governor
State congress wants to appoint Michael Gianaris(D) as PACB member, who opposes the plan strongly
According to recent opinion survey, NY residents favor the plan by 57%, oppose by 26%, no idea by 17% (79% favor for State’s re-evaluation, 13% opposing, 8% no idea)
Governor favors the plan expecting 25,000 job creation for next 10 years and 40,000 jobs for next 15 years, and $186B economic benefits for next 25 years

China government is pulling out the funds out of US which creates worry in RE market
According to WSJ, Chinese sold commercial properties for $854M more than buying in 4th Qt, 2018. They were keep selling more than buying for last 3Qt
In 1st Qt, Chinese bought $4.2B commercial properties and sold $450M, and buying was $37.5B more than selling.
US economy was booming because of “China Money” for many years (AnBang group purchased Waldorf Astoria Hotel at $1.95B /China investors spent $19.8B in 2016)
1) China money goes back to China and 2) Ref IR increase will press RE price going down may affect US economy negatively
Not only in US, China is also retreating investment in Australia and Japan
In Sydney, Australia, house price went down by 11% in 2018 and will go down 10% in 2019

According to Zillow, “Sold” at higher than listing price is 19% in December 2018, dropped by 21% from November (total in 2018 was 23.5% while 22.7% in 2017)
Since May (24%), it is decreasing continually
Yet, it is too early to call Buyer’s Market because of recent lowering interest rate
Sellers need to be more cautious than before

According to FT, construction company stocks are down and residential seas decreased, which might indicate a signal for recession
FT sees it is similar signs before the last financial crises in 2008
NAR announced that December sales were down by 6.5% to 4.99M which is lowest since November 2015
Price hike is also considered as bad signal and price level is above than 2006 level
Case-Shiller index is 205.85 in November 2018 while it was 184.55 in 2006, which might indicate the burst is coming
Three credit levels in US: Prime, Alt-A, Sub-prime
Sub-prime lenders with higher interest rates are getting higher profits, which can be a cause for financial crises

On 1/30/2019, FOMC decided not to raise Ref IR and fix to 2.25% – 2.5%
In 2019, only 2 time increase instead of 3 times
Fed Reserves ended Zero interest period in 2015 and since then, they did 9 times Ref IR increase. Last year, they did 4 times

Number of foreign born 1st generation immigrants in US is biggest in 107 years

According to Pew Research Center, foreign born immigrants are 13.6% which is over 44M
1 out of 7 is foreign immigrant in US which is biggest since 1910
The peak point was 14.8% in 1890 and it is decreased continually till it hit the lowest point in 1970 which was 4.7%
Comparing to other advanced countries, the immigrant level in US is not high
Australia is 29%, New Zealand is 23%, Canada is 21%, Swiss is 30%, Austria is 19%, Sweden is 18%

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