Weekly News (June 21, 2023)

Mortgage Interest Rates Review

(Fairway Home Loan  6/21/2023)

Federal Fund Rate: 5.00% -5.25%        Prime Rate: 8.00%-8.25%

NJ Property tax for seniors might be reduced by 50%: 뉴저지 노인 재산세 절반 감면 초읽기  

(Korea Times  6/21/23)

• A law called “New Jersey Stay” that NJ Senior over 65 with under $500,000 income will get 50% property tax reduction has a green light since an agreement has reached between the Gov. Murphy and the leaders in both the congress and house representative.
• The maximum tax reduction can be up to $6,500 which was reduced from the originally proposed $10,000.
• If this law “New Jersey Stay” is passed at the end of this month along with the NJ State Budget Plan, it will be effective from Jan. 2026.

Silicon Valley Faces Office Surplus: 시리콘 밸리 빈 사무실 공간 넘쳐

(WSJ  6/21/23)

• Silicon Valley companies are dumping office space at an accelerating pace, as tech leaders such as Alphabet’s Google and Facebook parent Meta Platforms close locations and reassess their commitments to the workplace.
• Office-vacancy rates in Silicon Valley, which includes San Jose, Palo Alto and Sunnyvale, were up to 17% in June from 11% in 2019, said CoStar Group. In some spots, such as Menlo Park and Mountain View, the rate surpassed 20% this spring.
• San Francisco’s vacancy rates rose faster and sooner than in Silicon Valley, in part because much of the demand in the city was fueled by smaller firms that were quicker to cancel leases.

Office space in Silicon Valley/ San Jose available on the sublease market

Affordable House for middle class shrinking: 중산층 살수 있는 집… 10채 중 2채에 불과 

(Korea Daily   6/20/23)

• Among about 1.1M houses on the market in U.S., only 23% can be affordable to the middle class with $75,000 income, while it was 51% 5 years ago, announced NAR in April.
• The reason of this sharp drop is the housing inventory of about $260,000, which can be purchased by the middle class, were reduced severely by a shortage of 320,000 homes.
• Currently only 3 month inventory exists while it was 14 month inventory at high, which leads to push the house prices. Buyers needs to prepare more down payment because of both high interest rates and home prices.

Rakes Hikes Risk Boosting Housing Costs: 이자률 인상이 주택공사비 부담, 공급에 악영향

(WSJ  6/21/23)

• In North America and Europe, higher rates are already contributing to an easing in construction. New building permits for private housing in the U.S. fell by a seasonally adjusted 21.1% in April compared with a year earlier, while construction starts were down 22.3%, said Census Bureau.
• High interest rates hurt construction because they make it more expensive for developers to build. They also make it more expensive for households to buy homes, hitting demand for new housing and leading some developers to delay projects.
• Freddie Mac’s Khater said more state and local governments could lift zoning restrictions and expedite permitting for new housing to encourage construction and address chronic shortages.

New building permits for private housing in the U.S., change from a year earlier

May new construction starts increase sharply: 5월 주텍착공 22% 깜짝 급증 – 1년여만에 최다  

(Korea Daily   6/20/23)

• Commerce Dept announced on 20th that the construction starts increased 21.7% surprisingly from last month to 1.63M at annual rate, while economists forecasted 0.8% increase.
• This monthly increase is the highest in the last 13 months, and 5.7% increase compared to a year ago which is the first time increase in a about year. Construction permits also increased 5.2% from the last month to 1.49M at annual rate.
• It might indicate demand for buying is increasing and more buyer move to new construction, but next month interest rates increase will lead to increase mortgage rates which can give pressure to buying demand.

Bond Yields Rise on Fed Forecast: 연방 경기전망에 국채 수익률 상승

(WSJ   6/15/23)

• The yield on the bench-mark two-year Treasury note, which is particularly sensitive to the near-term outlook for interest rates, settled at 4.707%, compared with 4.694% Tuesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 3.796%, up from 3.773% just before the Fed released its latest policy statement and economic projections, though down from 3.838% a day earlier.
• The Fed’s decision to leave its benchmark federal-funds rate at a range of 5% to 5.25% had been clearly telegraphed by officials and came as no surprise to investors.
• Despite some good news on inflation, Treasury yields have climbed in recent months, reflecting in large part easing anxieties that increasing interest rates will drive the U.S. economy into a recession this year.

2 Year U.S. Treasury Yield

Confidence on Soft Landing leads to company’s more investment: 경제연착륙 자신감, 기업들 투자 늘린다

(Korea Times   6/20/2023)

• At the “Business Roundtable”, Major corporate CEOs forecast U.S. economy growth to 1.5% while it was 1.3% at the last meeting, which means U.S. companies are expecting “Soft Landing” after the 18 month’s down economy.
• 39% of the 143 CEOs at the meeting said they will increase investment in 6 months in the future while 33% of CEOs said they will increase employment, compared to 41% in the 1st Qt.
• The chairman of the Business Roundtable, GM CEO Mary Barra said the resolving federal default situation helped investment mind and CEOs are ready to cooperate with the government to enforce competitive edge of U.S. companies.