Weekly News (May 10, 2023)

Mortgage Interest Rates Review

(Fairway Asset Corp. 5/10/2023)

Federal Fund Rate: 4.75% -5.25%        Prime Rate: 8.00%-8.25%

Manhattan has almost 94M sf of available office space: 맨하탄에 94M sf 사무실 공간 비어있는 상태

(Crain’s   5/8/23)

• Spring has not given Manhattan’s office landlords much to cheer about so far, with available supply in the borough reaching a record high of almost 94M sf in April, according to Colliers.
• Midtown was the borough’s busiest neighborhood, with about 891K sf of leases, followed by Midtown South at 420K and downtown at 184K. Activities in all three neighborhoods was down sharply year-over-year, although leasing in Midtown did increase compared to March.
• Midtown South’s asking price is at $81.77 /sf and Downtown had its slowest month of the year, its average asking price dropped by 10.8% from March 2020 to hit $58.69/sf.

The incorporation of new cities has increased racial segregation in Metro Atlanta: 

• Municipal incorporations, or the creation of new cities in the US, have decreased in numberover the last few decades but still take place in some regions that have unincorporated territory (nine states in the US are fully incorporated). New cities are often in suburban, unincorporated parts of metropolitan regions, particularly in Southern states. For instance, greater Atlanta has added eleven new cities since 2005 and some movements are still underway.
• In fact, the percentage of non-white people, most of them Black, in suburban Atlanta has significantly increased in all three counties with new cities, especially compared to overall trends in Georgia.

Major demographic changes in Atlanta GA area

Home Prices in 1St Qt Fell in Nearly a Third of Cities: 미국 메트로 지역의 1/3 정도, 주택가격 감소

(WSJ  5/10/23)

• Home prices fell in more parts of the U.S. than they have in over a decade during the first quarter, when nearly a third of metro areas posted annual price declines, NAR said Tuesday.
• During the peak of the housing boom, home prices surged in practically every corner of the U.S. Now, the housing market is split down the middle of the country, with prices still rising in many parts of the Midwest, South and Northeast while sliding in Western states.
• The hardest-hit housing markets were in California and the Mountain West. San Francisco posted a 14.5% median single-family home sale-price decline from a year earlier, and San Jose median prices fell 13.7%. Pandemic boomtowns Austin, Texas, and Boise, Idaho, also posted price declines of more than 10%.

Median sales price of existing single-family homes

Retailers Leave Cities for Suburbs: 소매상가 몰, 교외 지역으로 이동

(WSJ  5/10/23)

• Some restaurants and retail businesses are now moving from their once-bustling urban locations to the nearby suburbs.
• Suburban landlords said demand from retailers was strong during the first months of this year, even with high inflation and rising interest rates. Shopping center ownerSite Centers reported record-high leasing in the first quarter, while owner Phillips Edison reported a new high for occupancy.Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. said its portfolio is more than 98% leased.
• Real-estate firm CBRE said asking rent growth in the suburbs also outpaced urban areas last year.

Change in U.S. downtown foot traffic from 2019

Fed Keeps Watch on Four Key factors: 준비위원회, 4 가지 요소 계속 관찰 

(WSJ     5/6/23)

• The fed didn’t say exactly how they will know when they have reached the terminal rate. Four factors they are monitoring:
• Bank lending: a particular focus for us is whether small or medium banks are tightening credit standards à help lower inflation.
• Income growth: Average hourly earnings increased 4.4% in April from a year earlier. The Fed chair said 3% is appropriate.
• Labor demand: other sign of cooling of the still-hot labor market, which in turn could take pressure off wage growth. Hiring strengthened in April and the unemployment rate, at 3.4%, matched the lowest reading since 1969.
• Inflation: Fed officials said they want to see inflation of 2% goal. By that gauge, the inflation rate fell to 4.2% in March from a 40-year high reached last June.

Chat GPT Causes a Stock-Market Ruckus: 챗GPT  인공지능 기술이 주식시장을 혼돈으로 

(WSJ   5/10/23)

• The rise of artificial intelligence is taking the tech world by storm. The technology also is making waves on Wall Street.
• It is early days for so-called generative AI, a form of artificial intelligence that can conjure original ideas in the form of text, video or other media. But the tool has caused a stir in companies, schools, governments and the general public for its ability to process massive amounts of information and generate sophisticated content in response to prompts from users.
• Big technology companies are investing billions of dollars in the technology. Start-ups are raising cash and trying to develop business models using AI at a rapid pace.

Chat GPT Causes a Stock-Market Ruckus: 챗GPT  인공지능 기술이 주식시장을 혼돈으로 

(WSJ   5/10/23)

• Chip makerNvidia ’s shares are surging, while shares of study-materials companyChegg have plummeted 48% last week.
• “We view AI as huge, and we’ll continue weaving it in our products on a very thoughtful basis,”AppleChief Executive Tim Cook said.
• EvenCoca-Colatold investors it is experimenting with the technology.
• Microsofthas added nearly $500 billion in market value since the tech giant announced a $10 billion investment in startup OpenAI, developer of ChatGPT, in January.
• Google parentAlphabetshed $100 billion in market value in a single day earlier this year after its chatbot Bard underwhelmed investors, though those losses quickly reversed. Alphabet shares are up 22% this year.

WHO Declares  Pandemic Emergency Is Over: 세계보건기구, 펜데믹 비상사태 종결 선언

(WSJ   5/6/23)

• WHO declared an end to the Covid-19 emergency, signaling that one of the most deadly and economically devastating pandemics in modern history is receding as the disease becomes a routine illness.
• Covid-19 is here to stay, but the pandemic has been in a downward trend for more than a year because people around the world have built up immunity to the virus, the WHO said. The trends have enabled most countries to return to prepandemic life, even as Covid-19 continues to spread.
• More than 17,000 deaths were reported globally in the past month, according to the WHO. There were about 1,050 reported Covid-related deaths in the U.S. in the week ended in April 26, federal data show.