Weekly News (May 8th, 2024)

Mortgage Interest Rates Review

United Mortgage Nation  5/8/2024

                  Federal Fund Rate: 5.25 -5.50%        Prime Rate: 8.25 – 8.50%  

NJ Home Insurance is soared

뉴저지주 주택 보험료도 급등      

Korea Daily  5/2/24 

• According to nj.com, DOBI ( Dept of Banking and Insurance) received 129 requests to increase insurance premium.  Most insurance companies are asking increase of home insurance between 5% – 10%ome companies are asking 25% increase. Clear Bule Ins. Co is asking 93.9% increase, which was ended up only 20%.      
• Palisade P&C Ins Co requested 34%, but they got approval of 14% increase. Kingston Insurance and CrestBrook Insuarnce got approved 18.7% and 14.9% respectively.  
• The reasons of this premium increase are 1) repair cost increase  2) Construction material and labor cost increase  3) increased damages by weather conditions. 

Office Turmoil Comes for Trump Building

WSJ  5/8/24 

• Donald Trump’s prized Manhattan office tower at 40 Wall St. is getting swept up by the worst storm to hit the office market since the 2008 global financial crisis.
• His investment in the landmark 63-story tower, near to the New York Stock Exchange, has long been considered one of his shrewdest deals. Trump paid less than $5 million for a long term lease on the tower in 1995, when New York’s commercial property market was struggling. Within a few years, the property soared many times in value as the market rebounded. 
• 40 Wall is under duress because of weakening demand. The tower’s vacancy rate has risen to 21%, compared with about 5% in 2015. Drugstore chain Duane Reade, one of 40 Wall’s largest tenants, recently vacated its office and retail space in the building, leaving 23,000 square feet empty on the ground floor.

Downtown NYC Availability & Rent 

WSJ  5/8/24

NY Consumers expects house price and mortgage rates soaring more

Korea Daily/Times  5/8/24 

• According to Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s(33 Liberty St, New York: 50,000 sf) recent survey in Feb, 2024, the participants answered that house price will go up 5.1% after 1 year, while it was 2.6% a year ago.  The forecasted house price increase rate in 5 years is 2.7% while it was 2.6% a year ago.  
• The participants forecasted rent increase of 9.7% a year later while it was 8.2% a year ago.  
• They anticipated more increase on mortgage rate to 8.7% a year later, 9.7% three years later.  More than 50% of the participants answered the probability of moving out in three years is less than 10%.   

E-Commerce Saves Bricks and Mortar

WSJ   5/8/24 

• Store owners once viewed ecommerce as amounting threat to their survival. Now, more bricks-and-mortar stores are thriving after integrating their properties with the online shopping experience.
• Shoppers browse in person to see, touch or try on items before ordering them online. They are picking up or returning purchases in stores. And retailers are relying on their shops as fulfillment hubs, shipping items ordered online from stockrooms in addition to warehouses. Nearly 42% of e-commerce orders last year involved stores, up from about 27% in 2015, according to GlobalData.
• Said Neil Saunders, managing director at the research firm. “In many ways, the store is still the heart or hub of retail.”

US retail e-commerce sales as a percentage of total sales (Qt)

WSJ  5/8/24

ARM becomes popular as Fixed-Mortgage rate soars

집값, 모기지이자  고공행진에 변동금리 인기 

WSJ   5/8/24 

• As conventional mortgage 30 year fixed mortgage rates hit 7.29% at the 4th week of April, said MBA that ARM(Adjustable Rate Mortgage) becomes popular. 
• According to MBA, application for ARM increased to 7.8% at the 4th week of April, which was the record since Nov 2023.  It was 3% level when there was lowest mortgage rate such as 3% level. 
• Recently 5 year ARM’s rates is 6.60% decreased from 6.64%, but it shows wide range,  depending on the lenders. 

Hiring Cools, Lifts Rate-Cut Hope

고용이 약화되면서, 이자률 감소에 희망이…     

WSJ  5/4/24 

• U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported on Friday. That was far less than in March, when gains exceeded 300,000. It was also below the 240,000 jobs that economists had expected.
• Friday’s report will keep hope alive for a late-summer interest-rate cut from the Fed, because it eases fears of an overheating economy. Still, the Friday jobs figures won’t change much for the Fed’s immediate outlook, in part because another employment report is due before officials’ June 11-12 meeting.
• The healthy jobs market has made the Fed’s task easier in some ways, allowing officials to keep their focus on inflation. 

Nonfarm payrolls change

WSJ  5/4/24

Tesla’s Sales in China Fall As Rivals Log Gains

중국내 경쟁사로 인해 테슬라 영업 부진   

WSJ  5/8/24 

• Tesla’s sales in China dropped in April, while its Chinese rivals reported higher sales as the country’s electric vehicle market rebounded from a slow start this year.
• The U.S. EV maker sold 62,167 China-made cars in April, down 18% compared with a year earlier, preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association showed Tuesday. Tesla’s sales were down 30% from March.
• Tesla retained its position as China’s second-largest seller of EVs in April after BYD , which sold more than 300,000 units, rising 49% from a year ago and 3.45% from March. 

Passenger EV car sales in China in April

WSJ  5/8/24