Weeklye News (August 23, 2023)

Mortgage Interest Rates Review

(United Mortgage Nation  8/23/2023)

Federal Fund Rate: 5.25% -5.50%        Prime Rate: 8.25%-8.50%

Hudson Manor in Fort Lee, Grand Opening: 허드슨 매너 ( 구 풍림 자리) 드디어 개업

(Korea Daily  8/21/2023)

• After long time set back due to the financial trouble and, therefore, delayed construction, Hudson Manor opens on 9/5/2023 at 2053 Lemoine Ave, Fort Lee (former PoongLim restaurant).
• Room capacity 100 x5 rooms : $190/hr rate with minimum 4 hour use
  Room capacity 80 x1 room: $160/hr rate with minimum 4 hour use
  Room capacity 50 x 1 lounge : $200/hr rate with minimum 4 hour use
  Room capacity 50 x1 room : $130/hr rate with minimum 4 hour use

• T: 201 851 5000 email: info@hudsonmanornj.com

Airbnb Biz in NYC will be disappeared: 뉴욕시, 에어비앤비 자취 감출터   

(Korea Daily  8/23/23)

• New Act for a short tern rent in NYC will be enacted in 2 weeks, which will enforce regulations on short term rent less than 30 days like Airbnb.
• There are many tenants who rent the place and register with Airbnb to get a short term guests with high fee. Most these hosts receive about twice rent than regular rent.
• New law stipulates that the host has to register personal info, rent income, account info to the city authority. NYC will levy sales tax, tourist tax, and hotel tax, etc to these hosts.
• Any violators will be charged $5000. Airbnb said this will practically ban their business in NYC.

NYC Rent hit the record again: 뉴욕시 렌트 또 사상 최고치 경신      

(Korea Daily    8/11/23)

• As high interest rates and less inventory in the housing market continue, NYC rent hit the record high again in July.
• According to Miller Samuel appraisal company, the average Manhattan rent reached to $5,588 in July, which increased 9% from the last year. The median rent also increased 6% from a year ago, 2.3% increase from the last month, to $4,400.
• While NYC population decreased 400,000 between June 2020 and June 2022, the average rent increased 30% from 2019. Studio rent raised 18% in July from last month, and 3Br rent raised 36%.
• The reasons are 1) young workers moved into the city after the pandemic 2) increased Airbnb 3) most renters extended existing lease, etc.

Mortgage Rates Now Highest In Over 20 Years: 주택융자 이자률, 20년만에 최고점

(WSJ   8/18/23)

• The average mortgage rate rose to 7.09%, its highest level in more than 20 years, released Thursday Freddie Mac. The increase extends a lengthy stretch of high borrowing costs that has slowed the housing market to a crawl. This marked the first time since last fall that the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose above 7%. A year ago, rates were around 5%.
• Mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the central bank’s moves. But they tend to move loosely with the 10-year Treasury yield, which on Thursday hit 4.307%, its highest level since 2007. Some analysts see ample room for the 10-year yield to keep climbing as markets brace for the possibility that rates aren’t going to decline any time soon.

Average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage

More M Generation become home owners: 밀레니얼 세대… 세입자에서 집 주인으로

(Korea Times    8/21/23)

• The pandemic pushed M Gen, born in between 1981 – 1996, to own more their homes than other generations.
• According to CNN reported that the population under 44 have owned much more homes between 2016 and 2022 than other generations, especially during the pandemic period. During the same period, over the population over 55 stays about same rate.
• The home owner rate of below 35 increased 4.5% to 39%, and home owner rate between 35- 44 increased 3.6% to 62%.

Commercial Property’s Bright Spot-Shops:  상업용 건물중 기대가 되는 소매 상가

(WSJ  8/22/23)

• Retailers are on track to open 1,000 net new stores in the U.S. this year as retail availability hits record lows, despite turmoil in commercial real estate. Landlords said demand for retail space has remained robust this year, defying inflation pressures, high interest rates and liquidations including a few major chain stores.
• Nationwide, the rate of available retail space fell to 4.8% in the second quarter, the lowest level in the 18 years.
• Not all retail is thriving. Low-end, enclosed malls are in crisis as department stores contract and other tenants move to open-air locations. Of the $942 million in sales of distressed retail properties so far this year, two-thirds involved mall properties.

Retail store openings & availability rate

Home Sales Fall 2.2% Amid High Rates, Low Supply: 주택판매 건수 2.2% 감소  

(WSJ  8/23/23)

• Home sales fell in July for the fourth time in five months, extending one of the deepest housing slumps in recent memory.
• Sales of existing homes, the majority of purchases, decreased 2.2% in July from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.07 million, NAR said Tuesday. That was the slowest monthly sales pace since January and the slowest July pace since 2010.
• The combination of high mortgage rates, near-record home prices and limited inventory has been suffocating sales, which were down 16.6% from a year earlier in July. With mortgage rates last week rising back above 7% to a two-decade high, sluggish home sales activity is expected to continue for a while.

China’s 40-Year Boom is Over, Raising Fears of Extended Slump: 중국의 40년 호경기도 끝, 침체로의 두려움

(WSJ  8/21/23)

• For decades, China powered its economy by investing in factories, skyscrapers and roads. The model sparked an extraordinary period of growth that turned it into a global giant.
• Now the model is broken. The country is drowning in debt and running out of things to build. Parts of China are saddled with under-used bridges and airports. Millions of apartments are unoccupied. Returns on investment have sharply declined.
• IMF puts China’s GDP growth at below 4% in the coming years, less than half of its tally for most of the past four decades. Capital Economics, a London-based research firm, figures China’s trend growth has slowed to 3% from 5% in 2019, and will fall to around 2% in 2030.

China’s working population/productivity growth/average return on investment

How Hard Should the Fed Squeeze? : 연방준비위, 얼마나 더 조일건가?  

(WSJ  8/23/23)

• Strategy adopted to get inflation down to 2% could have painful economic impact. Much of the work lowering inflation is done: Amid the most aggressive series of interest rate increases in four decades, it has fallen to 3.2% from 9.1%.
• Fed officials could try to get to 2% quickly, such as by the end of next year, by raising rates higher and only slowly reducing them as the economy weakens. That would risk a sharper downturn and possibly kill the chances of achieving the soft landing.
• The move-quickly camp argues for the Fed to keep the screws tight to force inflation down to 2% briskly, even if that leads to recession.