Weekly News (Feburary 14, 2024)

Mortgage Interest Rates Review

United Mortgage Nation  2/14/2024


30 yr fx (%) 15 yr fx (%) FHA 


10 yr Tr Y (%) 5 yr Arm (%) 7 yr Arm (%)
A year ago 6.249 5.125 5.750 3.484 6.249 6.249
A month ago 6.899 6.375 6.299 4.363 6,875 6.875
Last week 6.875 6.125 6.125 4.243 6.875 6.875
This week 6.875 6.250 6.125 4.177 6.875 6.875

 Federal Fund Rate: 5.25 -5.50%        Prime Rate: 8.25 – 8.50%  


Hard to Find Rent Apartment in NYC

뉴욕시 렌트아파트 찾기 하늘의 별따기        

Korea Times  2/14/24

  • According to NYCHVS, the average vacancy rate in NYC is 1.41% which is the lowest in 50 years. NYCHVS report is done every 3 years and this report is surveyed from 10,000 residents between Jan and June, 2023. (The previous report in 2021 said 4.54%).
  • The total rentable apartments in NYC are 2.357M units and only 33,210 units are available with 1.41% vacancy rate. 
  • Vacancy rate in Bronx is 0.82, lowest and 0.88 in Queens, 1.27% in Brooklyn, 2.33% in Manhattan.    


44% of office buildings are underwater

오피스건물의 44%가 깡통 건물   

Korea Times  2/13/24

  •  According to Green Street, value of commercial properties declined 35% compared to 2022.  
  •  High interest rates and less demand for office due to work-from-home trend are the contribution factors for the declined of the value.  Another more eminent danger is default possibility of mortgage payment due to maturity of most of current commercial loans, which is about $544B in 2024.
  • NBER reported that 14% of commercial properties are underwater, and 44% of office buildings are underwater.  300 banks among 4500 in U.S. can be affected by the loans with these underwater properties(Ex:NYCB)     


Lowest residential transactions in 28 years

주택거래량 28년만애 최저

WSJ  2/14/24 

  • According to NAR on 19th , existing-home sales were 409M in 2023 , which is the lowest record in 28 years since 1995.
  • Median home price was $382,600 in Dec, 2923 which is up 6.2% from a year ago, increasing for continuous 6 months. 
  • While the Fed is contemplating lowering interest rates, residential mortgage rates also shows declining which might trigger more hole sales in year. 


Home price went up 5.1% in Nov 2023

작년 11 월 집값 5.1% 상승, 연중 최대폭 급등    

WSJ   2/13/24 

  • On 30th, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index went up 5.1% in Nov 2023. compared to a year ago, which shows a sharp increase from Oct which was 4.7%, compared to a year ago. 
  • 10 biggest cities’ home price index increased 6.2% from a year ago, which shows sharp increase from 5.7% in previous month. 20 biggest cities’ home price index increased 5.4% while the previous month was 4.9% increase. ( WSJ forecast was 5.7%)
  • Detroit and San Diego shows 8.2% and 8% respectively, compared to a year ago.


Warehousing Demand is Starting to Shrink

웨어하우스 수요가 다소 감소되기 시작…

  • Retailers and their suppliers have been slashing their inventories. Now they are turning to cutting back storage space. The shift comes as retailers have turned the corner on a big drawdown of inventories and are aligning their supply chains for more normal, prepandemic stocking and consumer spending patterns.
  • The tight market pushed the average warehouse asking rent up by nearly 24% in 2022 year-over-year, compared with an annual increase of 6.3% in 2019, before the pandemic, according to JLL.
  • Warehouse leasing activity across the U.S. increased 14.8% in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, although that was down 9% compared with the same quarter the year before, according to JLL.


Average U.S. warehouse space available for sublease, quarterly

WSJ  2/14/24

Inflation Clouds Rate-Cut Path

이자률 감소, 고집스런 인플레이션으로 고민…    

WSJ   2/14/24 

  • The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, versus a December gain of 3.4%. That marked the lowest reading since June.
  • Still, the consumer-price index was higher than the predicted 2.9%, a disappointment for investors who hope the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later.   The release gave a nasty jolt to markets. Stocks fell sharply and bond yields rose.
  • Officials have said they aren’t ready to entertain rate cuts at their next meeting, March 19-20, because they want to see more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target.


Consumer-price Index, change from a year ago

WSJ  2/14/24

LG Chem, GM Sign $19B Contract

LG 켐, GM과 $19B 계약성사 

WSJ   2/8/24 

  • The Seoul-based chemical company, LG Chem said Wednesday that it signed a 10-year deal to provide GM with more than 500,000 tons of cathode materials— enough to make batteries for about five million EVs—beginning in 2026. It said the cathode supply is worth at least $18.65B. bil
  • LG Chem will produce the material in Tennessee, where it broke ground on a plant in December. The facility, which it expects will become the largest cathode material plant in the U.S., will produce up to 60,000 metric tons of cathode materials a year starting 2026.
  • In 2021,  GM said it planned to phase out nearly all gasoline-and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035, making it among the first automakers to vow a full switch to electric.


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