Weekly News (January 7, 2025)

Mortgage Interest Rates Review

United Mortgage Nation  1/7/2025

Federal Fund Rate: 4.50 -4.75%        Prime Rate: 7.50 – 7.75%

Open-Air Retail is A Real-Estate Winner

                 소매 쇼핑 몰의 수요가 급상승 

WSJ  1/6/25(Mon)

• When homebuilders downed tools after the 2008-09 financial crisis, they planted the seeds of a housing shortage that is boosting the wealth of existing homeowners and investors. The same thing is about to happen in retail, or at least in one corner of it.
• Open-air neighborhood shopping centers are now one of the hardest types of commercial real estate. They have been fuller than America’s e-commerce warehouses for almost two years, according to data from CBRE, partly because there has been a flood of new industrial warehouse construction and practically none for retail.
• Blackstone spent $4 billion on shopping-center owner Retail Opportunity Investments. Bain Capital also was interested in buying the company, according to news reports. The deal was Blackstone’s biggest bet on U.S. retail since 2011.

Performance of listed RE stocks in 2024

WSJ 1/6/25

E Musk establishes own town in TX

텍사스에 “머스크 도시” 추진

Korea Daily   1/6/25(Mon)

• According to NYT on 24th, the employees of Space X owned by Elon Musk filed application of registering of new town near Boca Chica, TX, where Starbase, the spaceship station base of Space X is.
• They are trying to same town name and elect the Mayor by election. This town’s size is about 1.5 square miles and the total population is about 500 including 100 children who are mostly employees of the Space X.
• NYT also mentioned that Musk could try to make same type of business towns around other area in Austin, TX where manufacturing facilities for Space X, Boring company , and the company X will be moved to.

Community Wealth Preservation Program makes Flipping Biz hard

    뉴저지 경매주택의 낙찰 우선권 변화

Korea Daily  1/3/25(Fri)

• Generally the bidder who can bet the highest bid starting from upset price will be the winner and bidder can buy the house at any auction sales.
• However, recently NJ started “Community Wealth Preservation Program” changing the order of priority of winning the bidding as

1. Original owner and their children
2. If they don’t bid, Community Development Corporation(NCDC)
3. If they don’t bid, whoever wants to live that house for next 7 years.
4. If they don’t bid, general public

Also bidding deposit is now only 3.5% while it was 20% before, and

closing is in 120 days in stead of 30 days before.

Trump is Already Spooking the Fed

  트럼프, 벌써 연준 겁주기…

WSJ   12/20/24(Fri)

• The Fed can no longer deny that it is beginning to think about what Trump will do as a president. That in turn likely means fewer rate cuts in the horizon.
• The release of the Fed’s summary economic projections showed that Fed policymakers’ median expectation is now for inflation, as measure by the core personal-consumption expenditures index, to come in at 2.5% next year, up from September’s projection of 2.2%.
• This implies just two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, down from four previously. Tariffs, tax cuts and curbs om immigration are likely on the agenda once Trump takes office, but the degree and timing of all three are very much in question.

Unemployed for 27 weeks/Selected Hiring industries

WSJ  1/7/25

Blip Up in Home Sales Masks a Weak Year

       11월 주택판매 반쩍으로 저조한 실적 만회

WSJ 12/20/24(Fri)

• Sales of existing homes rose in November, notching the biggest supply of homes for sale gave buyer more opportunities. November sales rose 6.1% from a year earlier, the biggest gain since mid-2021.
• Even so, home-buying activity remains subdued for the second straight year. Sales of previously owned homes in 2024 are on track to hit their lowest level since 1995.
• Nationally, there were 1.33M homes for sale or under contract at the end of November. That was down 2.9% from October but up 17.7% from November 2023, NAR said. National median price in November was $406,100, a 4.7% increase form a year earlier.

 Rent burden continues to go up

 렌트비 부담 계속 가중, 22%는 소득 전부 투입   

Korea Times   12/30/24(Mon)

• According to Redfin’s recent report, about 22% of U.S. citizens spend all of their income as rent payment. About 20% of the U.S. U.S. citizens have two jobs to make rent payment.
• About 13% of seniors are spending retirement fund in advance to handle rent payment, 12% has reduced the savings for retirement.

• In November, new construction starts reduced 3.1%. It has been reduced by 29.3% in 2024, and projects under construction are 821,000 which is the lowest since march 2022.
• Many people couldn’t buy homes during the Pandemic when the house price hit the ceiling and mortgage rates hit the bottom, and they were forced to into rental market and consequently rent soared.